Tuesday, November 4, 2008

At Long Last- Presidential Predictions

Well at long last the election is here....

As much as I love this stuff like most of America,,,, I am ready for it to end.

Not sure if this is good or not, but for the 1st time in a while I had a good night of sleep and feel pretty confident for Barack Obama.

While 17people has been just awful with political predictions this year,, here is how I think the Presidential election will play out. Have been playing around with the electoral map and while anything is possible see the path to 270 for John McCain as requiring a 'perfect storm' of 11 states or so breaking for him.

That 'perfect storm' has already taken a hit for a simple reason. There aren't a lot of storms as the weather around the country seems to look really nice. Four cities important to Obama vote totals in two states appear to have good weather. Columbus and Cleveland, Ohio both have 60 degree plus weather for all day as does Pittsburgh. The only bump in the weather is some rain in Philadelphia later this evening.

For McCain to win he has to win both Pennsylvania and Ohio. Big turnouts in those four cities make it harder for McCain to win them and he has an uphill climb in Pennsylvania, but I can't call it for Obama because McCain and Palin have worked the state very hard.

Going into this evening 17people has 11 states in the toss up category that count for 141 Electoral Vote. I see Obama with 265 solid electoral votes and McCain with 132 solid electoral votes.

These numbers give Obama Iowa, Colorado, Virginia, and New Mexico but keeps Pennsylvania in the Toss Up Category.

McCain's fringe states in the 132 number include Arkansas and West Virginia, but has Arizona in the Toss Up category.

So the 11 states to watch according to 17people are.

  1. Pennsylvania
  2. Ohio
  3. Florida
  4. North Carolina
  5. Georgia
  6. Indiana
  7. Missouri
  8. North Dakota
  9. Montana
  10. Nevada
  11. Arizona

Of these 11 states McCain leads in the RealClearPolitics Average of polls in 6 states all within the margin of error, and Obama in 4 states (North Dakota has no average I can find). Obama's average in Pennsylvania is up 7.3 which is the biggest of any of these states and up 6.8 in Nevada.

So while not going out on a limb,,,

17people is predicting that Barack Obama will win tonite.

But I do predict a bigger electoral vote total than many others. Last night I almost brought myself to say he would top 400 Electoral votes, but I think that Obama will come up just short in Georgia, Arizona, and either Indiana or Missouri.

So after some contemplation I think that Obama will get 53% of the popular vote and get 370 Electoral votes. I predict a sweep of the big three Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. Also think that of the 11 on the list above he will sneak out wins in Montana (thanks to Ron Paul) and North Dakota, think he will squeeze out a win in Indiana, and will win Nevada.

That gets him to 370 on the dot.

The reason that Democrats have lost the past two elections to George W. Bush is that they were playing on a very small Electoral battlefield. Gore had no room for error, Kerry had no room for error, and this year the candidate with no room for error, is John McCain.

Call it financial resources, the economy, an unpopular war, or an even more unpopular President, but the Democrats played across the a wider range of the country in this election. They put more states in play.

Many criticized the underappreciated Howard Dean 4 years ago for talking about a '50 state strategy' for the DNC. Even more questioned the Obama campaign for going after Indiana, Virginia and North Carolina so hard from the beginning of the race.

In the end the should the Democrats have a big night,,, it will be because for the first time in years they gambled to expand the electoral map.

Again, 17people says 370-168 this evening and Obama will win the popular vote by 6million votes.

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