Multiple times I have written that I do not care about national polls and care most about state polls. So this morning I was reviewing the polls of the day at my favorite site for non-partisan information, RealClearPolitics.com.
I like to look at the daily polls which come from the various states which I view as a better view of how things work than national polls.
While I rarely see a number that I feel deserves its own blog,,, this one does.
The latest poll in Alaska shows Obama down 11 points. Now double digits and being over 50% is a big lead and a solid state for the Republicans.
However,, this is the home state of the 'most popular Governor in the country' who just happens to be,,,, on the Republican ticket and the worse news for Governor Palin is that the numbers which you can see below show that there is a trend towards Obama in Alaska. A gain for Obama-Biden of six points in the last two weeks.
8/30-9/2
McCain Palin 54
I like to look at the daily polls which come from the various states which I view as a better view of how things work than national polls.
While I rarely see a number that I feel deserves its own blog,,, this one does.
The latest poll in Alaska shows Obama down 11 points. Now double digits and being over 50% is a big lead and a solid state for the Republicans.
However,, this is the home state of the 'most popular Governor in the country' who just happens to be,,,, on the Republican ticket and the worse news for Governor Palin is that the numbers which you can see below show that there is a trend towards Obama in Alaska. A gain for Obama-Biden of six points in the last two weeks.
8/30-9/2
McCain Palin 54
Obama-Biden 35
10/3-6
McCain Palin 55
Obama-Biden 38
McCain Palin 55
Obama-Biden 38
10/17-19
McCain Palin 53
Obama-Biden 42
Check the numbers for yourself in this Anchorage Press Article.McCain Palin 53
Obama-Biden 42
Additionally, the new NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll said that "now, Palin’s qualifications to be president rank as voters’ top concern about McCain’s candidacy".
So Palin is a major concern of the voters nationally, has higher negatives than positives with a W-like 47-38 against, and is seeing her own state's polls tighten.
Is the Palin pick starting to look like a bit of a liability?
In the words of Sarah Palin...
You Betcha!
2 comments:
I like fivethirtyeight.com for all my polling needs.
It's run by two pollester dorks who really care more about the math than they do the politics.
Just in case you hadn't seen it.
I wonder (assuming she isn't VP) if Palin has a chance at getting re-elected in Alaska.
I am very familiar with 538 and think they are great.
The founder, Nate Silver is a regular guest on Countdown with Keith Olbermann whom I watch religiously.
He is one of the most uncomfortable TV guests I have seen, which is not uncommon for a math guy I suppose, but I like their model because they are not as cautious as the network guys are and call the numbers what they are.
Though don't want Dems to think its an easy 360+ votes like they currently have.
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