Thursday, January 3, 2008

Iowa Predictions

Have really slacked on keeping up with the blog, but to be honest other than Romney's constant flip flopping and disaster of a campaign has not been very much that has moved me to waste any time to write on this campaign.

That being said, as a caucus veteran the joke that is Iowa and the less that 5% of the voters that could propel a candidate to the nomination will break down the following way in my expert opinion.


Think that the numbers of Mike Huckabee are kind of soft due to the lack of money he has had to put into the field and because of the rather odd last week he has had, with the commercial that he produced, then pulled, then showed to the Media.

Think that field in campaigns is how you win and that Romney has had the foot soldiers on the ground and will pull off the win in Iowa. However think that if McCain sneaks out a third or even strong 4th place finish that he will steal the story of the night for the Republicans unless Romney wins by 7-10 points.


Have been telling anyone who will listen to me in the past 2-3 weeks that I really believe Edwards will win the caucuses. Think that the fact his team just went through this four years ago is an advantage and unlike Dick Gephardt who reaked of desperation to win Iowa in 2004 Edwards has run an aggressive and smart campaign. Think that he will be down in the initial stages of the caucuses but that when the Bidens, Richardson, Dodd, Kucinich voters don't reach viability that they will move over to Edwards instead of either of the two frontrunners.

While I don't always like what I hear from Edwards, think he has shown a real fight in the last month which the Iowans are going to respond to tonite.

So what about 2nd and 3rd. Think Obama will finish second and Hillary will have a Howard Dean like 3rd place finish, ie disappointing, but that she will play it right to position herself well for New Hampshire.

17people predictions:


Romney 33
Huckabee 26
McCain 16
Paul 9
Thompson 8


Edwards 35
Obama 28
Clinton 22
Richardson 9

*** Saw Charlie Wilson's War last night. Highly recommend this as a must see. The Sorkin script is great and Tom Hanks and Phillip Seymour Hoffman are a dynamic acting duo.

Plus it shows how US foreign policy can work when done smart and what happens when you only plan for the next day.

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