Monday, April 21, 2008

Pennsylvania Preview

For a wannabe political blog this blog has tried it's best to avoid writing about the deterioration of the Clinton-Obama showdown.

Yet, avoiding the mudslinging of the Democratic Primary come tomorrow night the only people that matter will decide the winner. That would be actual voters. The pundits and their need to exaggerate every statement or body language will now get to say how right or wrong they are.

Here is how I see Pennsylvania stacking up. Neither candidate is riding any wave of momentum as Obama was early on. This is a state that plays to the candidate Hillary Clinton has portrayed herself as, which is the candidate of the 'working class'. Pennsylvania like many states is best known for it's big city's and Pittsburgh and Philadelphia will of course be factors, but think that the rural/small town voters will be especially vital in this race.

That would seem to play into Hillary Clinton's hands, but I just have this gut feeling that Obama will do better here than expected. While the press, along with McCain and Clinton have tried to make the 'bitter' remarks against him I am going to make the gamble that voters aren't as stupid as politicians treat them. I think that many of the 'small town' folks are going to say, 'hell yeah I'm bitter' that my jobs gone, or that my gas is $4/gallon and I want a change.

The downside for Obama is that the 'change' message has been lost a bit in the past 6 weeks in the mire of Jeremiah Wright, Samantha Powers, Geraldine Ferraro, Bill Clinton, inappropriate questions to Chelsea Clinton, fictional Bosnian Snipers, and last but not least, the 'bitter' comment which made the tragic mistake of making sense.

I am afraid to predict an Obama victory in Pennsylvania because I have been so wrong in all my predictions, but think he will make it a close.

The number I am most interested in is the voter turnout number. Democrats have made much about the drastic increase in many of the states compared to past turnouts. After 6+ weeks with very little positive news and both candidates taking body blows if Democratic turnout stays high, it will be a bad sign for Republicans come November.


Anonymous said...

Now that the Penn Primary is over and Obama has finished a close second. What do you think about his chances in Indiana & Kentucky as well as locking down the democratic nomination?

17 People said...

Hope4Change. 1st of all thanks for posting and hope to continue to get your feedback!

I think Indiana and Kentucky are tough states for Obama expecially because he has gotten off the "change" message and momentum is more with Hillary right now.

She has big institutional support in Indiana with Evan Bayh. As far as Kentucky, my second home, if the numbers from Pennsylvania hold true Demographically then I am afraid that she is in good shape in Kentucky.